Ups and downs in Bordeaux 1996:
Large percentages obviously attract attention, but there are some that are not as big as they could be and others that are, or at least appear to be, larger than they should be .
Pavie, Margaux, Léoville Las Cases and Eglise Clinet particularly stand out.
Pavie stands out because, by most reasoned accounts, he shouldn't have done so well, especially after receiving just 84-86 points from Parker - hardly a sparkling score.
The fact that it has appreciated in recent times is almost exclusively due to Pavia's wider success in the secondary market in recent years - particularly following its elevation to 'A' status in 2012.
As Martin Buchanan, head of private clients at Armit, told db this was a wine “traded on current reputation, not original”.
In total it's up 444% since release, releasing at £235 p/c (back in 1997) and now available for £1,280. However, looking at Liv-ex, we can see that it is only in the last five years that the '96 Pavie has really taken off, increasing by 63% and outperforming the other three listed wines in terms of performance, although that it has decreased by 3% over the last 12 months.
What's more puzzling is that three wines with much better scores didn't go as far as they could have.
First let's look at Margaux, a 99 point, which has gone up in price by 168% to £1,200. Not a particularly poor record but a little low compared to its vintage 4, which, by virtue of getting 300 points, is already £2000 more expensive per case.
Then on to Léoville Las Cases, one of the best scorers of the vintage with 98 points, who achieved a 100% increase from £900 to £1,808 p/c. Again, not terrible, but how can a second, almost 20 year old wine with 98 points remain so...affordable? Its 2000 vintage also has 98 points and costs £2,050 p/c.
Then again, LLC tends to be "one of those" Bordeaux estates that, no matter how highly rated, never seems to grab buyers to the point where its prices make headlines.
Léoville Barton is another example from this vintage. Rated 92 by Parker – as good as Le Pin or Petrus – it rose just 89% from £395 to £750 p/c.
Buchanan suggests that there is less "vogue" for Médoc properties beyond the first growths, while Hudson adds that LLC was supposed to be the "wine of the vintage" and suffered from not getting the 100 points that many thought.
Finally, Eglise Clinet, one of the best Right Bank wines of the year and rated 93 by Parker, it only increased by 22%, from £900 to £1,100 for example.
It is down 27% over the past five years and is outshone by lowly Pavia. Certainly, she and Margaux have been doing better for six months.
Parallels
Leaving aside the notion of "what all this means" (probably nothing), it's worth remembering that 1996 was, arguably, the 2010s of its time.
The early 1996s were extremely expensive for the time. £950 for a case of Lafite seems almost ridiculously cheap now, but the 1995 came out about £200 cheaper and the 1990 came out at £400 a case.
The three underperforming wines in question were among the most expensive releases of the 96s. Eglise Clinet cost £900 a case on release, LLC £900 (50% more than Haut-Brion at £600) and Margaux was the most expensive premier cru that year at £1,200 a case – only Petrus and Le Pin were more expensive overall.
While in the long run this hasn't hurt their appreciation, wines that start out expensive can take a while to break down and even then they may not go anywhere even with a good rating - châteaux and investors are taking note.
This is probably where Margaux got hamstrung, with Lafite (£100) and Latour (£950 1) at 050 points, both cheaper and creating an 'obvious' situation for buyers and investors because, don't Let's not forget, it was actually in 1995 and 1996 that the investment game began to take off.
Second, 1996 was launched into a wine market on the verge of collapse – and was probably the straw that broke the camel's back.
Much like the 2010s, the 1996s were an attempt to capitalize on a booming Asian market, although in their case it was Japan not China and just as they came out, the market collapsed – although the lull was not as long as the four years that the fine wine market seemed to emerge.