Vintage 2024 conditions
The below-average sized crush can be attributed to a number of seasonal factors as well as various forms of human intervention driven by economic considerations and market forces.
Major global-scale climate influences on the Australian climate in 2023 were a La Niña at the start of the year, an El Niño and a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole which were established in early spring, and a positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode towards the end of the year.
The positive Southern Annular Modulation (SAM) caused extensive high-pressure systems, resulting in strong winds.
Australia had its eighth-hottest year on record in 2023, and the warmest winter. By contrast, autumn 2024 was relatively cool; the national mean temperature for autumn was the coolest since 2012.
Rainfall across the whole year was above the 1961–1990 average for most of Australia, but below average for Tasmania, southern Western Australia and parts of southern Victoria, eastern and south-western South Australia. Most of the rain fell later in the year; winter rainfall was below average, and August–October was Australia’s driest three-month period since records began in 1900.
Notable weather events affecting various regions at different times included heavy rainfall and significant flooding, major thunderstorms, hail events, severe winds and heatwaves. Widespread windy conditions affected flowering in many regions,
leading to reduced fruit set and yield potential, while the dry spring weather led to cold nights and the potential for frost damage.
Based on comments provided by respondents to the 2024 National Vintage Survey, different regions experienced a wide range of outcomes, from “complete disasters” to “excellent” vintages, highlighting the variability in conditions and impacts. Many regions experienced low yields due to various factors including frost, poor fruit
set, birds and disease. This is the third low-cropping year in a row for some areas. However, despite challenges, some regions including Coonawarra and the Granite Belt reported achieving long-term average or high yields.
Many regions experienced a compressed vintage due to the dry conditions and heat in late summer and early autumn.
Notwithstanding the impact of these seasonal factors, a significant amount of the reduction in overall crush size compared with the 10-year average can be attributed to deliberate decisions made by grapegrowers and wine businesses, driven by low grape prices, significant stock overhangs and reduced global demand for wine despite the very small 2023 vintage. These decisions include reduced purchasing of uncontracted fruit and the imposition of yield caps by wineries, and management of vineyards to reduce crops, harvesting of grapes to the ground, resting of vineyards and vine removals by grapegrowers.
The National Vintage Survey cannot capture how many tonnes were not harvested or produced, as it only collects information from wineries on grapes that are crushed.
Second consecutive small vintage in 2024 but no evidence of supply shortfall
Crush value analysis
The estimated value of the crush in 2024 is just over $1 billion. The value increased by 2 per cent compared with 2023 as a result of the 9 per cent increase in the crush size being partly offset by a decline of 5 per cent in average value.
Red grapes accounted for 56 per cent of the total value, with Shiraz contributing the largest share (23 per cent). Chardonnay was second by value with a 19 per cent share (see Table 3 on page 15).
The value of the crush is determined based on the value of purchased grapes. The winegrape batches reported in the National Vintage Survey are classified as either ‘winery grown’ – i.e. grown by the winery that crushed them, or ‘purchased’ – i.e. bought from an independent third party11.
An analysis of the prices paid for purchased grapes enables an estimation to be made of the value of the grapes at a region–variety level, which in turn can be aggregated to a regional or national level. Winery grown grapes are assigned the same value as purchased grapes of the same region–variety combination.
In 2024, there were 16,718 separate batches of purchased grapes reported in the National Vintage Survey by 436 different respondents, comprising a total of 859,896 tonnes with a value of just over $527 million.
There were 275 respondents who did not purchase any grapes, making up 39 per cent of respondents, but only accounting for 2 per cent of the crush.
The overall average value of the crush in 2024 was $613 per tonne – a 5 per cent decrease compared with 2023. This decrease was a result of a decrease in the share of tonnes from cool/temperate regions, which have a higher average value